📊 Record $384B in CRE Loans Extended: What It Means for 2025 🔍​

🕰️ CRE's Debt Carousel: $384B in Loan Extensions Spin On 🔄​

In commercial real estate, timing is everything—and right now, time is exactly what lenders are buying.

A new report from Colliers reveals that a record $384 billion in commercial real estate (CRE) loans have been extended into 2025, up a staggering 42% from last year’s $270 billion. That means nearly 40% of all CRE debt maturing this year—roughly $957 billion—is being delayed, rather than resolved.

What’s behind this trend? A familiar strategy: extend-and-pretend.

⏳ What Is "Extend-and-Pretend"?

"Extend-and-pretend" is the practice of granting short-term loan extensions instead of tackling tough financial truths—like refinancing at today’s higher interest rates or facing a foreclosure.

According to Aaron Jodka, Director of Research at Colliers, “We are not done with extend-and-pretend.”

Rather than forcing borrowers into default, lenders are buying time, hoping the market improves—or at least that rates soften before write-downs become inevitable.

📊 Which CRE Sectors Are Most Affected?

Here’s how it breaks down by asset class:

🏘️ Multifamily:

📌 $97 billion in extensions
📌 Roughly ⅓ of all multifamily debt maturing in 2025

🏭 Industrial:

📌 55% of 2025 maturities were pushed forward from previous years—the highest proportion across all sectors

🏢 Office:

📌 $85 billion in extensions
📌 Roughly 45% of the $187B in loans due in 2025

➡️ Lenders are clearly reluctant to give up on sectors like office and multifamily, even when the math isn’t working—yet.

🗽 Real-World Example: Manhattan's 150 E. 42nd St.

Take Manhattan’s 150 E. 42nd Street as a prime case study.

A $525 million CMBS loan tied to the property was recently granted a three-year extension. The economics might not support a full payoff right now, but the long-term bet? Still worth waiting for.

This is extend-and-pretend in action.

🔮 What Comes Next?

While loan modifications hit $35.5 billion this year—mostly due to rising defaults—the extend-and-pretend trend has kept widespread foreclosures at bay… for now.

But with another $663 billion in CRE debt maturing in 2026, we’re not out of the woods yet. Jodka likens it to a never-ending carousel ride: 🎠 “Record-setting maturities, year after year.”

💡 The Bottom Line

Extend-and-pretend is a double-edged sword: it keeps markets afloat today but kicks the can down the road for tomorrow.

For CRE investors, lenders, and developers, this means:

• 📉 Price discovery remains slow

• 💸 Capital remains cautious

• 🧠 Strategy and timing are everything

In this climate, knowing where and when to act is more critical than ever.

If you’re navigating this shifting market and want guidance on smart moves in 2025, let’s connect.

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