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William Rapp, based in Houston, TX, US, is currently a Capital Advisor at Medallion Funds, bringing experience from previous roles at eXp Commercial, NEXA Mortgage, Viking Enterprise LLC and Sun Realty - Houston. William Rapp holds a 1997 - 2001 BBA in Finance @ Texas A&M University. With a robust skill set that includes REO, Sellers, SFR, FHA financing, Reverse Mortgages and more, William Rapp contributes valuable insights to the industry.

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📉 Fed Rate Cut on the Horizon? What July Inflation Data Tells Us 📉

📊 Will the Fed Cut Rates in September? Inflation Data Breakdown 🔍

September 03, 20243 min read

📊 Will the Fed Cut Rates in September? Inflation Data Breakdown 🔍

📉 Fed Rate Cut on the Horizon? What July Inflation Data Tells Us 📉

The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, has dropped a significant hint about a possible rate cut in September. This potential shift in the Fed's monetary policy is creating waves, not just in financial markets, but also in sectors like commercial real estate, where the effects of interest rate changes can be substantial. 🌐

📊 The Inflation Picture: July Data In Line with Expectations

In July, the core PCE index rose by 0.2% from the previous month, matching Wall Street’s expectations. On a year-over-year basis, the index increased by 2.6%, slightly below the anticipated 2.7%. This data marks the first new read on inflation since Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted at a possible rate cut, stating, “The time has come.”

The PCE index is a crucial tool for tracking inflation as it reflects the price of goods and services purchased by consumers across the country. The moderate increase in the core PCE suggests that inflation may be cooling, potentially influencing the Fed's decision at its upcoming meeting. 🛍️

💰 Rate Cut Speculation Intensifies: How Deep Will It Go?

As of August 30, market expectations for a rate cut are heating up, with the CME's FedWatch Tool showing a 67.5% probability of a 25-basis-point cut and a 32.5% chance of a more aggressive 50-basis-point reduction. Nationwide Senior Economist Ben Ayers emphasized that a rate cut in September seems almost certain following Powell’s recent Jackson Hole speech. However, the depth of the cut may depend on the upcoming economic data. 📉

The next key indicator will be the August employment report, set to be released next Friday. Should the data show significant job losses, it could prompt the Fed to consider a more substantial rate cut. Additionally, consumer spending data, which continues to outperform expectations, indicates that the economy remains robust despite inflationary concerns. 💪

🏢 Impact on the Economy and Commercial Real Estate

The potential rate cut has been met with optimism in sectors like commercial real estate, where lower interest rates could spark investment and growth. However, some experts caution that the benefits of a rate cut may be short-lived. As Olu Sonola, head of U.S. economic research at Fitch Ratings, pointed out, while inflation data has become more stable, underlying market challenges may persist even with lower rates. ⚠️

“This is a double dose of good news on inflation and economic growth,” Sonola said. “But the real test will be whether this stability translates into sustained economic recovery in sectors like commercial real estate, where challenges remain.” 🏗️

🔍 Looking Ahead: What to Watch For

As the Fed gears up for its September meeting, all eyes will be on the upcoming employment report and any further inflation data. These will be key in determining the Fed's next move and the potential impact on the broader economy. For commercial real estate players and other market participants, the anticipated rate cut could offer a much-needed boost, but caution is advised as the long-term effects remain uncertain. 🧐

In conclusion, while the Fed's preferred inflation gauge has provided a strong signal for a September rate cut, the broader implications for the economy and real estate markets are still developing. Stay tuned as we closely monitor the Fed’s actions and the economic indicators leading up to its next meeting.

#FederalReserve #Inflation #InterestRates #Economy #CommercialRealEstate #JeromePowell #RateCut #RealEstateMarket #EconomicGrowth #FinancialMarkets #InvestmentOpportunities

I’m an experienced Commercial Real Estate Mortgage Broker, please feel free to reach me at 281-222-0433.

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© 2023-2024 Bill Rapp, Medallion Funds LLC, Director of Capital Advisory

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Bill Rapp - Commercial & Residential Mortgage Broker

Whether you're a first-time homebuyer, a seasoned investor, or a business owner with ambitious plans, securing the right financing is crucial. At Medallion Funds, we take the guesswork out of mortgages, offering a comprehensive suite of residential and commercial loan options to fit your unique needs. Looking for Your Dream Home? We understand the excitement and challenges of navigating the residential real estate market. Our experienced mortgage brokers will guide you through every step, from pre-qualification to closing. We offer a variety of loan programs to suit your financial situation, including: • Fixed-rate mortgages: Offering stability with predictable monthly payments. • Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs): Providing competitive rates for a set period. • FHA loans: Making homeownership accessible with lower down payments. • VA loans: Rewarding veterans with attractive rates and flexible terms. Investing in Your Business Future? Growth often requires capital, and we can help you unlock the potential of your commercial property. Our brokers specialize in a wide range of commercial loan options, including: • Purchase loans: Financing the acquisition of new buildings or land. • Construction loans: Facilitating the development of your project. • Refinance loans: Restructuring your existing mortgage for better terms. • SBA loans: Providing access to government-backed financing for qualified businesses. The Medallion Funds Difference: We go beyond simply finding a loan. We take the time to understand your goals and develop a personalized strategy. Here's what sets us apart: • Expertise: Our brokers have a deep understanding of both residential and commercial lending. • Competitive Rates: We leverage our strong lender relationships to secure the best possible terms. • Streamlined Process: We handle the paperwork, keeping you informed every step of the way. • Exceptional Service: We're committed to providing you with a positive and stress-free experience. Ready to Take the First Step? Contact Medallion Funds today for a free consultation. Let's discuss your financing needs and help you achieve your dreams!

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Corporate NMLS NMLS # 1825831 | Company Website: https://medallionfunds.com/bill-rapp/

Copyright ©2021 | Mortgage Viking Team Licensed to Do Business | NMLS # 228246

This is not an offer to enter into an agreement. Not all customers will qualify. Information, rates and programs are subject to change without notice. All products are subject to credit and property approval. Other restrictions and limitations may apply

Corporate | NMLS ID NMLS # 1825831

Corporate Address : 2651 N. Green Valley Pkwy STE. 101 Henderson, NV 89014 https://medallionfunds.com/bill-rapp/